Jackson Hole

Updated: Sep 11, 2020

“Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy,”

This years virtual symposium will prove to be quite different. It will be conducted online, Aug. 27 to Aug. 28

Last year we wrote a note about a potential "Black Swan". This year with reference to our post about liquidity, "Nor any drop to drink".

The Federal Reserve continues to pursue a rising inflation policy. With all the liquidity we need velocity in the money supply. It will be interesting to see if their members at this years meeting want to stay the liquidity course. If so, perhaps we should reference a Golden Swan or better yet a Golden Bull.

If on the other hand, they decide that perhaps with the market at new highs they have done enough lifting for now we could see a strong rally in the dollar.

Here's a chart from Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report

He goes on to say in conclusion:

The implications of a presumably rising dollar, which these indicators are calling for, would be greater purchasing power and thus lower price inflation.  It would also likely have a depressing effect on gold prices.  The Fed is statutorily mandated to try for “stable prices”, but a lot of Fed officials recently have been shamefully going against their own mandate, and calling for higher inflation rates.  They ought to be fired, but that is a separate issue.  A rising dollar as these indicators are foretelling is going to get those officials even more upset, and will give additional justification for keeping short term interest rates lower.

The buzz on Wall street is they intend to let inflation run. We'll soon find out what their future intent will be.

Here is the press release from the KC Fed. There are links to follow when the meeting starts later this week.


August 24, 2020

CONTACT: Bill Medley, Victoria Rosengarten

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI –  The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will convene its 44th annual Economic Policy Symposium, “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy,” Aug. 27 and Aug. 28. Due to the pandemic, the 2020 symposium will take place online and be streamed to the public. This year’s topic will explore the issues policymakers are expected to face over the coming decade. The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically changed the near-term outlook for the global economy and elicited unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy responses. The effectiveness of the policy responses and the prospects for recovery from the shutdown of economies around the world remain highly uncertain. Over the longer run, the sluggish economic growth and historically low interest rates that preceded the pandemic pose additional challenges for policymakers.  Although the future is always uncertain, slow growth and low rates are widely expected to persist. These expectations play a key role in decisions made today that, in turn, may reinforce the dynamics of slow growth and low rates. Thus, understanding how low interest rates are related to slow growth, how households and businesses form expectations, and how changes in those expectations affect economic activity is critically important for central bankers as they develop strategies to achieve their mandates. The full agenda will be available at KansasCityFed.org at 7 p.m. CT on Aug. 26. Beginning on Thursday, Aug. 27 at 8 a.m. CT, the public can view the symposium on the Kansas City Fed’s YouTube channel, www.youtube.com/kansascityfed. Papers and other materials will be posted on the Kansas City Fed’s website as they are presented during the event.  Since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored a symposium on an important economic issue facing the U.S. and world economies. Beginning in 1982, the symposium was hosted at the Jackson Lake Lodge at Grand Teton National Park, which is located in Wyoming—one of the seven states served by the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Each year, the event provides a venue for international central bankers, Federal Reserve officials, other policymakers and academics to discuss issues of mutual concern. Visit kansascityfed.org to read more about the symposium's history, which spans more than four decades. As the regional headquarters of the nation’s central bank, the Kansas City Fed and its branch offices in Denver, Oklahoma City and Omaha serve the seven states of the Tenth District: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico and western Missouri.

Enjoy the show!

Does anyone need any extra popcorn?

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