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  • Writer's pictureStephen H Akin

U.S. Economy in Global Context

U.S. Outpaces on Economic Growth, Labor Market Strength, and Inflation Reduction

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Akin Investments "Solutions for a Complex World"

The U.S. Department of the Treasury released an analysis of data from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook and other international sources that shows that the U.S. economy continues to outpace global peers and has exhibited more strength than forecasters anticipated throughout 2023 along three key dimensions: growing economic output, labor market resilience, and slowing inflation. The progress we have made on growth, labor markets, and inflation stands out across the globe, and remains an important source of strength for the global economy.


The resilience of the entire global economy is a testament to the President’s economic plan, as well as our work with partners around the world to effectively coordinate efforts to recover from the pandemic and support the global economy. In particular, the U.S. policy environment is a clear contributor to U.S. economic performance. The Biden Administration’s focus on supply-side measures via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act is working to expand our productive capacity to create space for faster growth without stoking inflation. Indeed, the October 2023 IMF World Economic Outlook attributes the improved global outlook partly to the strength of the United States economy. Our supply-side investments are not just bolstering the U.S. economy but supporting the global economic outlook as well.


Key takeaways from the analysis:

  • The United States has seen a particularly strong GDP recovery and is on track to return to pre-pandemic trend growth this year.

  • Global labor markets continue to strengthen, and the United States has been especially resilient.

  • U.S. inflation has cooled sooner and more quickly than in other advanced economies.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. growth continues to drive surprises to the upside in global growth in 2023, and the IMF notes that the likelihood of a hard landing has receded and the downside risks from last spring have moderated. While risks for the U.S. economy remain, the progress we have made underscores the value of a swift and growth-oriented policy response while making important investments in our economy’s long-run productive capacity.

photo of chart of GDP from US Treasury
Real GDP in Q2 2023

The full report is available here:

The U.S. Economy in Global Context _ U.S. Department of the Treasury
.pdf
Download PDF • 961KB


 

Consumer Sentiment Declined from 67.9 in September to 63.8 in October, Compared to Analyst Consensus of 63

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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Key Insights

  • Index of Consumer Sentiment declined from 67.9 to 63.8.

  • Current Economic Conditions decreased from 71.1 to 70.6.

  • Index of Consumer Expectations pulled back from 65.8 to 59.3.

On October 27, the University of Michigan released the final reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. The report indicated that Consumer Sentiment declined from 67.9 in September to 63.8 in October, compared to analyst consensus of 63.


Current Economic Conditions decreased from 71.1 in September to 70.6 in October, while Index of Consumer Expectations declined from 65.8 to 59.3.


University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer

Revisions to Estimates:


revision202310 cons sent
.pdf
Download PDF • 725KB

 

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